ICC opens door to Darfur genocide charge

Viernes, 5 de Febrero de 2010

Following is a look at the consequences an additional genocide charge could have.
LONG-TERM IMPACT
A genocide charge would leave an indelible stain on Bashir’s international reputation. The emotive force of the word ‘genocide’ would eat away at early expressions of support and make it nearly impossible for Western powers to consider any significant rapprochement with Sudan while Bashir is in power.
SHORT-TERM IMPACT
In the short term inside Sudan, a genocide charge could boost Bashir’s popularity among parts of the electorate in the run up to presidential and legislative votes in April.
In a series of defiant speeches, Bashir dismissed the court as a Western conspiracy against him, Sudan and Islam.
Bashir’s supporters will seize on the timing of the announcement and say it proves the court and its prosecutor are pursuing a personal and political vendetta.
INTERNATIONAL view
The Obama administration would come under pressure to take a more aggressive stance against Sudan.
The U.S. Envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, has up to now taken a relatively conciliatory approach, praising progress and promising. Activists could urge the EU to follow the United States in imposing economic sanctions on Sudan. Current major investors include French oil giant Total.
DARFUR IMPACT
The ruling would embolden Darfur’s remaining rebel groups, who would see it as a justification of their long campaigns. Any further delay would only extend the suffering of an estimated 4.7 million people that the seven-year conflict has left dependent on aid.
LEGAL IMPLICATIONS
There are clear legal distinctions between what constitutes a crime of genocide, a war crime or a crime against humanity. There is no specific sentence, however, that each crime carries.
The ICC judges determine sentencing, but the case against Bashir is still a long way from trial or even sentencing.
–By Andrew Heavens - Analysis/Reuters

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